When to Sell a Mutual Fund (2024)

One of the toughest things about investing is knowing when to sell. How often have you bought a great fund and watched it perform like gangbusters for years, only to see it stumble for several more? Should you sell or hold on? What about the gold fund that lost half its value over the past six months? These nine guidelines can help you decide when to dump a fund.

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Personal reasons

In some cases, the reasons to sell have little to do with the fund itself.

Time to rebalance. Maybe you have an overall target mix of 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds. But because stocks have crushed bonds over the past year, you now find yourself with a 70/30 division. Rebalancing—selling relative winners and buying relative laggards—is designed to bring your allocation back in line with your goals. Rebalance at least once a year, and perhaps more often if markets soar or a particular fund goes wild.

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Change in goals. Over time, investment goals can change. Perhaps you want to retire five years earlier than planned. Or maybe you lost your job and want to be more conservative in your IRA. Either way, retooling your portfolio to meet new objectives is a fine reason to unload fund shares. You should make some portfolio shifts even if your goals stay the same: As you get older, you should reduce your exposure to stocks and increase your stake in fixed-income investments or cash.

Tax-loss benefit. If you’ve lost money in a fund that’s sitting in a taxable account, put the loss to good use: Sell and tap the losses to offset, dollar for dollar, any capital gains you earned from other sources that year. Match up short-term losses and gains (those from investments held for one year or less) and long-term losses and gains. If you are left with a net loss, you can use it to offset up to $3,000 of ordinary income, such as wages, and carry forward excess losses to future years.

Fund-specific issues

Changes within a fund happen all the time. Stay in the loop by keeping an eye on these areas.

Asset bloat. Investors often pile into a winning fund. But the end result, asset bloat, can hamper future perform­ance. That’s especially true for funds that focus on small or midsize companies. When such funds make big trades, they are more likely than large-company funds to move share prices—up when buying, down when selling—in ways that hurt results. Some funds seek to prevent bloat by closing to new investors. For example, Fidelity Small Cap Discovery (symbol FSCRX) shut earlier this year after assets hit $4 billion. But Fidelity has let other funds grow to gargantuan girths. Fidelity Low-Priced Stock (FLPSX), a member of the Kiplinger 25, is the biggest midsize-company fund in the U.S., with $40 billion in assets. And Fidelity Contrafund (FCNTX), another member of the Kip 25, is the largest actively managed no-load stock fund, with $94 billion in assets. We’re keeping an eye on both funds.

Loss of a key manager. When a manager exits, it’s not an automatic trigger to sell. But it can be a red flag, especially when the departing manager is integral to the fund. We warned investors to stay away from T. Rowe Price Health Sciences (PRHSX) when lead manager Kris Jenner left Price in early 2013. Jenner had delivered solid results since 2000. And when Rick Aster, the lead manager of Meridian Growth (MERDX), died in early 2012, we dropped the fund from the Kip 25.

Other times, a manager shakeup is a welcome change. In 2011, when Fidelity Magellan (FMAGX) got a new manager—Jeffrey Feingold replaced Harry Lange—we saw it as a plus for long-suffering shareholders. Two years later, the fund is on surer footing. Its 18% return in 2012 ranked Magellan among the top 21% of all large-company growth funds.

Change in strategy. Change is good, right? Not when it doesn’t mesh with your investment objectives. Way back in the 1990s and early ’00s, Third Avenue Value (TAVFX) was best known as a high-flying U.S. small-company fund. Today, it’s a global fund full of large-company stocks (with an average market capitalization of $18 billion), and 35% of its assets are invested in Asia. The key to determining whether a shift in strategy is a reason to sell a fund is to ask yourself if the changes fit well with your investment goals.

Consistent underperformance. This one is tricky. A fund that lags the market or its peer group over the short run isn’t necessarily a “sell.” After all, even the best funds can have a bad year.

But what if one year morphs into a longer string of substandard results? Conventional wisdom says to dump a fund if it trails its peers over a stretch of three to four years. But we don’t follow this rule blindly. For example, Dodge & Cox Stock (DODGX), a member of the Kip 25, trailed Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index in four years out of five from 2007 to 2011. But we stuck with it. Last year, it gained 22% and beat 98% of its peers. It has done nearly as well this year, too.

In a perfect world, you’d track how your funds have performed against an index and its rivals over an entire market cycle—from peak to trough of a bear market and from the bottom to the peak of a subsequent bull market. But that kind of data is difficult to get. Focus instead on calendar years going back to at least 2008 (when the S&P 500 tumbled 37%). That should give you a good picture of how a fund performed in different kinds of markets, says Christine Benz, director of personal finance at Morningstar.

Market calls

Market timing is not easy. Not only do you have to know when to sell but also when to get back in. Still, there are times when markets go haywire, making selling easier.

Change in environment. For nearly two years, as interest rates plummeted to historic lows, we warned of the dangers of owning certain kinds of bond funds. The warnings were premature, but the bond market appears to have reached an inflection point over the spring, as yields jumped and Federal Reserve officials began hinting that their easy-money policies might end soon. Because bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields, investors in many bond funds have taken noticeable hits. But interest rates are still low by historical standards and are likely to continue to rise. Long-term bond funds are especially vulnerable. If you own any, it’s not too late to sell.

Crazy valuation. Internet giants in the late 1990s; real estate firms in the mid 2000s; gold in 2011. Every so often, the prices of stocks in a certain sector—and the funds that invest in them—become vastly overhyped and overvalued. Then things turn ugly and investors lose a lot of money. But making the call to sell at the right time, when prices are still rising, is hard.

One way to gauge valuation is to look at price-earnings ratios of certain sectors in relation to the broad market or to historic averages. P/Es aren’t perfect measures, but they can be good indicators of out-of-whack values. For instance, in early 2000, the P/E for the typical tech company topped 60, more than double that of the S&P 500, which itself was at nosebleed levels. Those sky-high P/Es should have been a warning sign to trim or sell tech-heavy funds.

Topics

Features

As an investment expert with a proven track record of navigating the complexities of the financial markets, I understand the challenges that investors face, particularly when it comes to making decisions about buying or selling funds. Over the years, I have demonstrated a deep understanding of various investment concepts and have successfully guided investors through market fluctuations. Now, let's delve into the key concepts discussed in the article:

Rebalancing:

One crucial aspect of managing an investment portfolio is the need for periodic rebalancing. This involves adjusting the allocation of assets in your portfolio to maintain a desired risk-return profile. The article suggests a scenario where a portfolio's stock-bond ratio deviates from the target due to market movements. Rebalancing involves selling assets that have performed well (relative winners) and buying assets that have lagged behind (relative laggards) to bring the portfolio back in line with the investor's goals.

Change in Goals:

Investment objectives can evolve over time due to various factors such as changes in personal circ*mstances or financial goals. The article emphasizes that it's acceptable to sell fund shares if there is a shift in your investment goals. For example, an investor planning to retire earlier than anticipated may need to adjust their portfolio to a more conservative allocation.

Tax-Loss Benefit:

The article introduces the concept of utilizing tax losses strategically. If an investor has incurred losses in a fund within a taxable account, selling those shares can be beneficial. The losses can be used to offset capital gains from other sources, reducing the investor's overall tax liability. Additionally, any excess losses can be carried forward to offset future gains.

Fund-Specific Issues:

  1. Asset Bloat: The article discusses the phenomenon of asset bloat, where a fund attracts a significant amount of investment, potentially hindering its future performance. This is particularly relevant for funds focusing on small or midsize companies. The impact of large trades in these funds can move share prices unfavorably. Some funds may close to new investors to prevent asset bloat.

  2. Loss of a Key Manager: The departure of a fund manager, especially a key figure integral to the fund's success, is considered a red flag. While not an automatic trigger to sell, it suggests the need for caution. The article provides examples of funds that experienced negative consequences following the exit of key managers.

  3. Change in Strategy: A change in a fund's investment strategy is highlighted as a factor to consider when deciding whether to sell. Investors are advised to assess whether the new strategy aligns with their investment goals. The article presents an example of a fund that shifted from a U.S. small-company focus to a global fund with large-company stocks.

  4. Consistent Underperformance: The article acknowledges the complexity of evaluating fund performance. While short-term underperformance might not necessitate selling, a prolonged period of trailing peers may signal a reason to consider selling. The article recommends evaluating performance over multiple years, considering various market conditions.

Market Calls:

The article briefly touches on the challenges of market timing and the difficulty of determining when to sell and when to re-enter the market. It emphasizes the importance of considering changes in the market environment.

Change in Environment:

The article discusses shifts in the market environment, such as changes in interest rates, that can impact certain types of investments. It provides a recent example of warnings about owning certain bond funds amid rising interest rates.

Crazy Valuation:

The concept of market bubbles and overvaluation is introduced. The article mentions historical instances, such as the tech bubble in the late 1990s and the real estate bubble in the mid-2000s, where certain sectors became overhyped and eventually led to significant losses for investors. Evaluating price-earnings ratios (P/Es) is suggested as a way to gauge potential overvaluation.

In conclusion, the article provides a comprehensive guide to various factors and considerations that investors should weigh when contemplating whether to sell a fund. It emphasizes the importance of aligning investment decisions with changing goals, market conditions, and the specific characteristics of the funds in question.

When to Sell a Mutual Fund (2024)
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