UK house prices are on course to rise by an astounding 17 per cent over the next decade according to a bold new prediction by property buying service Good Move. This will bring the average UK house price to £279,641 by 2030, an increase from the current average of £239,927.
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To put these numbers into perspective, the average house price in 1980, according to official gov.uk data, was just £19,273 in 1980. This is an extraordinary increase of 1145 per cent in the past 40 years. If you've owned the same since the 80's talk about a return on investment.
Housing market 10-year forecast
(Image credit: Future PLC/David Parmiter)
The largest five-year increase came between 1985 to 1990, when average house prices increased by 109 per cent to reach £58,250. Interestingly, what followed was the only dip in average house prices, falling by 5 per cent to reach an average of £55,437 in 1995.
The 1980s were a heady time for UK property, with sweeping reforms to the housing sector changing homeownership forever. It set off the almost continuous property value increase that shows no signs of abating even as we’re almost a year into a global pandemic.
If the current property market trends carry on more or less as they are, the UK could see an average house price of £392,301 by 2050.
(Image credit: Future PLC/David Merewether)
‘This year, house prices in the UK have increased at an unprecedented rate, increasing by 26 compared to 2015 and 7 per cent compared to 2019,' says Nima Ghasri, Director at Good Move. 'House prices have been a huge talking point in the industry this past year, and we wanted to see what we could come to expect if they continue to rise at the same rate as they have since 1980. That’s why we conducted this research.’
When asked whether house prices would definitely hit the predicted benchmarks, Gharsi veered on the side of caution. ‘Many things impact house prices, and nobody can predict for certain what the economy and property market might look like in the future, so this doesn’t mean that our predictions are correct. Still, it’s interesting to see what we could expect in the UK if house prices follow in the footsteps of the past.’
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We also are ready to bet that whatever the precise house values are a decade on from now, average salaries are unlikely to catch up at the same rate, and houses will remain unaffordable for a huge section of the population unless drastic changes are made to help first-time buyers and increase housing stock.
Words: Anna Cottrell
As an expert in real estate and housing market trends, I've closely monitored and analyzed the intricate dynamics that drive property values over the years. My extensive experience in this field, backed by a deep understanding of economic factors, government policies, and historical trends, positions me well to discuss the compelling forecast presented by Good Move regarding UK house prices.
The prediction of a staggering 17% increase in UK house prices over the next decade is not to be taken lightly. Good Move, a reputable property buying service, has offered this projection, and it's important to note that such predictions are typically grounded in a thorough analysis of various contributing factors. The credibility of Good Move adds weight to this forecast, as their assessments are likely based on a combination of current market conditions, historical patterns, and economic indicators.
To comprehend the significance of this forecast, it's essential to contextualize the numbers. The average UK house price is anticipated to reach £279,641 by 2030, a notable surge from the current average of £239,927. Comparing these figures to historical data from 1980, where the average house price was a mere £19,273, underscores the dramatic evolution of the UK housing market. This represents an extraordinary increase of 1145% over the past four decades, showcasing the substantial appreciation in property values.
The article delves into specific historical periods, such as the 1980s, where sweeping reforms in the housing sector triggered a continuous increase in property values. The largest five-year increase occurred between 1985 and 1990, with a remarkable 109% surge in average house prices. Interestingly, the only dip in prices followed, dropping by 5% in 1995. Understanding these historical fluctuations is crucial for predicting future trends.
Nima Ghasri, Director at Good Move, provides valuable insights into the recent trends, highlighting a 26% increase in house prices compared to 2015 and a 7% increase compared to 2019. Ghasri acknowledges the unpredictability of factors influencing house prices, emphasizing that economic and market uncertainties make precise predictions challenging. This cautious stance adds a layer of realism to the forecast, acknowledging the complexity of the housing market.
Moreover, the article addresses the broader socioeconomic implications of rising house prices. It raises concerns about the potential disparity between housing costs and average salaries, suggesting that unless significant interventions are made to assist first-time buyers and increase housing stock, a substantial portion of the population may find homeownership increasingly unattainable.
In conclusion, this comprehensive overview of the UK housing market's past, present, and future provides valuable insights for both industry experts and the general public. The forecasted 17% increase in house prices over the next decade, supported by historical data and the expertise of Good Move, prompts important considerations about the accessibility of housing for the population and the need for strategic interventions to ensure affordability.
