Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)

Data Source: from January 1970 to November 2023 (~54 years)
Consolidated Returns as of 30 November 2023
Live Update: Dec 22 2023

PORTFOLIO • LIVE PERFORMANCE (USD currency)

0.14%

1 Day

Dec 22 2023

4.66%

Current Month

December 2023

The Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio is a Very High Risk portfolio and can be implemented with 4 ETFs.

It's exposed for 80% on the Stock Market.

In the last 30 Years, the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio obtained a 7.94% compound annual return, with a 12.21% standard deviation.

Table of contents

Asset Allocation and ETFs

The Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio has the following asset allocation:

80% Stocks

20% Fixed Income

0% Commodities

The Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio can be implemented with the following ETFs:

Weight (%)TickerCurrencyETF NameInvestment Themes
48.00

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock MarketEquity, U.S., Large Cap
24.00

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-USEquity, Global ex-US, Large Cap
8.00

VNQ

USDVanguard Real EstateReal Estate, U.S.
20.00

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond MarketBond, U.S., All-Term

Most of Lazy Portfolios are made of common components (asset classes), very simple and well defined. For a more complete view, find out the most common ETFs you can use to build your portfolio.

Portfolio and ETF Returns as of Nov 30, 2023

The Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio guaranteed the following returns.

Returns are calculated in USD, assuming:

December 2023 return is calculated on the hypothesis of a newly built portfolio, with the starting asset allocation.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO

Consolidated returns as of 30 November 2023

Live Update: Dec 22 2023

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Chg (%)Return (%)Return (%) as of Nov 30, 2023
1 DayTime ET(*)Dec 20231M6M1Y5Y10Y30YMAX
(~54Y)
Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio0.144.668.416.358.157.567.227.949.57
US Inflation Adjusted return8.635.344.863.394.315.305.39
Components

VTI

USDVanguard Total Stock Market0.23Dec 22 20235.039.4210.0412.7211.7111.169.9010.49

VEU

USDVanguard FTSE All-World ex-US0.05Dec 22 20233.758.235.008.025.373.755.138.04

VNQ

USDVanguard Real Estate0.39Dec 22 20238.6412.084.30-2.993.666.418.3410.27

BND

USDVanguard Total Bond Market-0.07Dec 22 20233.294.54-0.600.970.721.334.126.47

Returns over 1 year are annualized | Available data source: since Jan 1970

(*) Eastern Time (ET - America/New York)

US Inflation is updated to Nov 2023. Current inflation (annualized) is 1Y: 3.14% , 5Y: 4.03% , 10Y: 2.80% , 30Y: 2.51%

In 2022, the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio granted a 1.93% dividend yield. If you are interested in getting periodic income, please refer to the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: Dividend Yield page.

Capital Growth as of Nov 30, 2023

An investment of 1$, since December 1993, now would be worth 9.91$, with a total return of 890.89% (7.94% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 4.71$, with a net total return of 370.52% (5.30% annualized).

An investment of 1$, since January 1970, now would be worth 138.34$, with a total return of 13733.50% (9.57% annualized).

The Inflation Adjusted Capital now would be 16.98$, with a net total return of 1598.49% (5.39% annualized).

Portfolio Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023

Metrics of Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio, updated as of 30 November 2023.

Metrics are calculated based on monthly returns, assuming:

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO

Advanced Metrics

Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)

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Metrics as of Nov 30, 2023
1M3M6M1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
(~54Y)
Investment Return (%)8.411.096.358.154.027.567.227.697.949.57
Infl. Adjusted Return (%) details 8.631.095.344.86-1.563.394.314.985.305.39
US Inflation (%)-0.200.010.963.145.674.032.802.582.513.97
Returns / Inflation rates over 1 year are annualized.

DRAWDOWN

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-8.99-23.46-23.46-23.46-44.44-44.44-44.44
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4*23*23*23*404040
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)3999161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)1141414242424
End (yyyy mm)----2011 022011 022011 02
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-27.90-27.90
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4242
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112000 092000 09
Start to Bottom (# months)3999162525
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022002 092002 09
Bottom to End (# months)1141414241717
End (yyyy mm)----2011 022004 022004 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 1134343463116116
Period Start (yyyy mm)2022 122021 012021 012021 012003 121999 071999 07
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102023 102023 102023 102009 022009 022009 02
Annualized Return (%)-0.26-0.03-0.03-0.03-1.09-0.01-0.01
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress
Deepest Drawdown Depth (%)-9.57-28.10-28.10-28.10-45.29-45.29-45.29
Start to Recovery (# months) details 4*23*23*23*636363
Start (yyyy mm)2023 082022 012022 012022 012007 112007 112007 11
Start to Bottom (# months)3999161616
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 102022 092022 092022 092009 022009 022009 02
Bottom to End (# months)1141414474747
End (yyyy mm)----2013 012013 012013 01
Longest Drawdown Depth (%)-3.80
same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest

same as
deepest
-44.10
Start to Recovery (# months) details 5122
Start (yyyy mm)2023 022022 012022 012022 012007 112007 111973 01
Start to Bottom (# months)1999161621
Bottom (yyyy mm)2023 022022 092022 092022 092009 022009 021974 09
Bottom to End (# months)41414144747101
End (yyyy mm)2023 06---2013 012013 011983 02
Longest negative period (# months) details 1136*485868140151
Period Start (yyyy mm)2022 122020 122019 112017 122006 021997 071970 01
Period End (yyyy mm)2023 102023 112023 102022 092011 092009 021982 07
Annualized Return (%)-3.78-1.56-0.13-0.05-0.36-0.15-0.34
Drawdowns / Negative periods marked with * are in progress

RISK INDICATORS

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Standard Deviation (%)14.3914.4415.3112.1712.7312.2112.31
Sharpe Ratio0.230.150.380.510.500.470.45
Sortino Ratio0.350.200.510.680.660.610.61
Ulcer Index3.4910.588.776.579.909.888.66
Ratio: Return / Standard Deviation0.570.280.490.590.600.650.78
Ratio: Return / Deepest Drawdown0.910.170.320.310.170.180.22
% Positive Months details 50%58%61%65%65%64%64%
Positive Months6213778156233420
Negative Months615234284127227

LONG TERM RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized7.2212.7812.7818.56
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized5.450.830.83
Best 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized4.3110.8210.8212.78
Worst 10 Years Return (%) - Annualized3.57-1.71-2.16

ROLLING PERIOD RETURNS

Inflation Adjusted:

Inflation Adjusted:

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Over the latest 30Y
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized50.1723.1519.1312.788.777.94
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.84-11.08-2.710.835.22
% Positive Periods76%86%98%100%100%100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized47.0220.2916.7510.826.395.30
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.98-13.01-5.22-1.713.09
% Positive Periods73%80%88%97%100%100%
Over all the available data source (Jan 1970 - Nov 2023)
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized53.9733.0328.1618.5614.9313.03
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.84-11.08-2.710.835.227.51
% Positive Periods80%90%98%100%100%100%
Best Rolling Return (%) - Annualized50.1029.1424.2612.7810.657.95
Worst Rolling Return (%) - Annualized-37.98-13.01-5.47-2.163.094.83
% Positive Periods72%81%86%96%100%100%

WITHDRAWAL RATES (WR)

1Y3Y5Y10Y20Y30YMAX
Safe WR (%)33.5522.9512.807.977.105.08
Perpetual WR (%)0.003.284.134.745.035.12

Terms and Definitions

  • Annualized Portfolio Return: it's the annualized geometric mean return of the portfolio
  • Deepest/Longest Drawdown: a drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. The deepest (or maximum) drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained. The longest drawdown is the period observed from a peak to the subsequent peak with the greatest duration.
  • Longest negative period: it's the maximum period for which an overall negative return has been observed
  • Standard Deviation: it's a measure of the dispersion of returns around the mean
  • Sharpe Ratio: it's a measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's calculated by dividing the excess return of the portfolio over the risk-free rate by the portfolio standard deviation. The risk-free rate here considered is the 1-3 Mth T-Bill return
  • Sortino Ratio: another measure of risk-adjusted performance of the portfolio. It's a modification of the Sharpe Ratio (same formula but the denominator is the portfolio downside standard deviation)
  • Ulcer Index: it's a measure of downside risk that quantifies the depth and duration of drawdowns in an investment portfolio
  • Best/Worst 10Y returns: the best and the worst 10-year return over a time frame
  • Rolling Returns: N-year returns over a time frame, calculated over all the available data source (best, worst, % of positive returns). Each rolling period, longer than the longest negative period, yielded a non-negative minimum return.
  • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR): it's the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year with inflation adjustment, without the portfolio running out of money (dollar amount withdrawal).
  • Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR): it's the percentage of portfolio balance that can be withdrawn at the end of each year, while retaining the inflation adjusted portfolio balance (percentage withdrawal).

Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
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Portfolio Components Correlation

Correlation measures to what degree the returns of the two assets move in relation to each other.

Correlation coefficient is a numerical value between -1 and +1. If one variable goes up by a certain amount, the correlation coefficient indicates which way the other variable moves and by how much.
Asset correlations are calculated based on monthly returns.

COMPONENTS MONTHLY CORRELATIONS

Monthly correlations as of 30 November 2023

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Asset

VTI

VEU

VNQ

BND

VTI

-

0.91

0.93

0.80

VEU

0.91

-

0.94

0.87

VNQ

0.93

0.94

-

0.83

BND

0.80

0.87

0.83

-

Asset

VTI

VEU

VNQ

BND

VTI

-

0.89

0.87

0.48

VEU

0.89

-

0.82

0.54

VNQ

0.87

0.82

-

0.56

BND

0.48

0.54

0.56

-

Asset

VTI

VEU

VNQ

BND

VTI

-

0.86

0.75

0.37

VEU

0.86

-

0.66

0.42

VNQ

0.75

0.66

-

0.57

BND

0.37

0.42

0.57

-

Asset

VTI

VEU

VNQ

BND

VTI

-

0.84

0.63

0.16

VEU

0.84

-

0.60

0.16

VNQ

0.63

0.60

-

0.31

BND

0.16

0.16

0.31

-

Asset

VTI

VEU

VNQ

BND

VTI

-

0.79

0.65

0.22

VEU

0.79

-

0.56

0.20

VNQ

0.65

0.56

-

0.24

BND

0.22

0.20

0.24

-

If you want to learn more about historical correlations, you can find out here how the main asset class are correlated to each other.

Drawdowns

A drawdown refers to the decline in value from a relative peak value to a relative trough. A maximum drawdown is the maximum observed loss from a peak to a trough of a portfolio before a new peak is attained.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO

Drawdown periods

Drawdown periods - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

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Drawdown period

Recovery period

Total

Drawdown Start Bottom #MonthsEnd#Months #MonthsUlcer Index
-44.44% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Feb 2011 24 40 20.80
-27.90% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Feb 2004 17 42 16.05
-23.46% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 13.10
-17.12% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Jul 2020 4 7 7.75
-15.17% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11 6.63
-12.55% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5 6.67
-10.12% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Apr 2019 4 8 4.43
-8.57% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14 4.41
-6.30% Apr 2012 May 2012 2 Aug 2012 3 5 2.87
-5.46% Apr 2000 May 2000 2 Aug 2000 3 5 2.98
-5.04% Feb 1994 Mar 1994 2 Mar 1995 12 14 2.98
-4.54% Feb 2018 Mar 2018 2 Aug 2018 5 7 3.03
-4.20% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2 2.42
-4.11% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2 2.38
-4.07% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3 2.36

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Drawdown period

Recovery period

Total

Drawdown Start Bottom #MonthsEnd#Months #MonthsUlcer Index
-45.29% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 18.78
-31.43% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Dec 2004 27 57 17.06
-28.10% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 18.54
-17.49% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 7.44
-12.86% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8 5.71
-10.61% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 4.65
-9.06% Mar 2015 Feb 2016 12 Jul 2016 5 17 4.62
-6.81% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16 4.17
-4.79% Jan 2005 Apr 2005 4 Jul 2005 3 7 2.45
-4.40% May 2019 May 2019 1 Jun 2019 1 2 2.54
-4.29% Aug 1997 Aug 1997 1 Sep 1997 1 2 2.48
-4.25% Sep 2020 Oct 2020 2 Nov 2020 1 3 2.46
-4.01% Jun 2007 Jul 2007 2 Sep 2007 2 4 2.27
-3.98% Oct 1997 Oct 1997 1 Jan 1998 3 4 2.08
-3.98% Sep 2021 Sep 2021 1 Dec 2021 3 4 2.16

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Drawdown period

Recovery period

Total

Drawdown Start Bottom #MonthsEnd#Months #MonthsUlcer Index
-44.44% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Feb 2011 24 40 20.80
-33.44% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Jan 1976 16 37 15.05
-27.90% Sep 2000 Sep 2002 25 Feb 2004 17 42 16.05
-23.46% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 13.10
-19.07% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jan 1989 14 17 8.87
-17.12% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Jul 2020 4 7 7.75
-16.53% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Dec 1970 6 12 8.08
-15.17% May 2011 Sep 2011 5 Mar 2012 6 11 6.63
-14.61% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Feb 1991 5 14 7.47
-12.55% Jul 1998 Aug 1998 2 Nov 1998 3 5 6.67
-11.97% Dec 1980 Jul 1982 20 Oct 1982 3 23 5.95
-10.43% Feb 1980 Mar 1980 2 Jun 1980 3 5 4.86
-10.12% Sep 2018 Dec 2018 4 Apr 2019 4 8 4.43
-8.57% Jun 2015 Feb 2016 9 Jul 2016 5 14 4.41
-7.80% Oct 1978 Oct 1978 1 Jan 1979 3 4 4.34

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Drawdown period

Recovery period

Total

Drawdown Start Bottom #MonthsEnd#Months #MonthsUlcer Index
-45.29% Nov 2007 Feb 2009 16 Jan 2013 47 63 18.78
-44.10% Jan 1973 Sep 1974 21 Feb 1983 101 122 20.95
-31.43% Apr 2000 Sep 2002 30 Dec 2004 27 57 17.06
-28.10% Jan 2022 Sep 2022 9 in progress 14 23 18.54
-19.77% Sep 1987 Nov 1987 3 Jul 1989 20 23 9.20
-18.90% Jan 1970 Jun 1970 6 Jan 1971 7 13 9.78
-18.86% Jan 1990 Sep 1990 9 Dec 1991 15 24 8.56
-17.49% Jan 2020 Mar 2020 3 Aug 2020 5 8 7.44
-12.86% May 1998 Aug 1998 4 Dec 1998 4 8 5.71
-10.61% Feb 2018 Dec 2018 11 Apr 2019 4 15 4.65
-10.08% Jul 1983 May 1984 11 Dec 1984 7 18 4.71
-9.06% Mar 2015 Feb 2016 12 Jul 2016 5 17 4.62
-6.99% May 1971 Jul 1971 3 Dec 1971 5 8 4.07
-6.81% Feb 1994 Nov 1994 10 May 1995 6 16 4.17
-4.94% Sep 1986 Sep 1986 1 Jan 1987 4 5 3.14

Rolling Returns

( more details)

A rolling return is a measure of investment performance that calculates the return of an investment over a set period of time, with the starting date rolling forward. This approach can provide a more accurate representation of the investment's historical performance and helps investors to evaluate the investment's consistency over time.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO

Annualized Rolling Returns

Annualized Rolling Returns - Inflation Adjusted

Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)

Inflation Adjusted:

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Rolling
Period

Worst Period

15th Percentile

50th Percentile

85th Percentile

Best Period

LatestNegative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.84 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -5.21 0.94$ 11.13 1.11$ 19.46 1.19$ 50.17 03/2009
02/2010
1.50$ 8.15 23.21%
2Y -21.61 03/2007
02/2009
0.61$ -1.88 0.96$ 10.60 1.22$ 16.73 1.36$ 34.70 03/2009
02/2011
1.81$ -2.14 17.80%
3Y -11.08 03/2006
02/2009
0.70$ 1.34 1.04$ 9.17 1.30$ 14.99 1.52$ 23.15 03/2009
02/2012
1.86$ 4.02 13.54%
5Y -2.71 03/2004
02/2009
0.87$ 2.86 1.15$ 7.31 1.42$ 12.85 1.83$ 19.13 03/2009
02/2014
2.39$ 7.56 1.99%
7Y 0.61 03/2002
02/2009
1.04$ 5.51 1.45$ 7.13 1.61$ 9.67 1.90$ 13.50 03/2009
02/2016
2.42$ 8.06 0.00%
10Y 0.83 03/1999
02/2009
1.08$ 5.64 1.73$ 7.99 2.15$ 9.48 2.47$ 12.78 03/2009
02/2019
3.32$ 7.22 0.00%
15Y 4.79 03/1994
02/2009
2.01$ 6.08 2.42$ 7.12 2.80$ 7.91 3.13$ 9.80 12/2008
11/2023
4.06$ 9.80 0.00%
20Y 5.22 04/2000
03/2020
2.76$ 6.54 3.55$ 7.52 4.26$ 8.43 5.04$ 8.77 12/1994
11/2014
5.37$ 7.69 0.00%
30Y 7.94 12/1993
11/2023
9.90$ 7.94 9.90$ 7.94 9.90$ 7.94 9.90$ 7.94 12/1993
11/2023
9.90$ 7.94 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

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Rolling
Period

Worst Period

15th Percentile

50th Percentile

85th Percentile

Best Period

LatestNegative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.98 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -7.95 0.92$ 8.72 1.08$ 17.06 1.17$ 47.02 03/2009
02/2010
1.47$ 4.86 26.93%
2Y -23.23 03/2007
02/2009
0.58$ -5.23 0.89$ 7.79 1.16$ 13.89 1.29$ 31.89 03/2009
02/2011
1.73$ -6.90 21.66%
3Y -13.01 03/2006
02/2009
0.65$ -1.56 0.95$ 6.79 1.21$ 12.11 1.40$ 20.29 03/2009
02/2012
1.74$ -1.56 19.69%
5Y -5.22 03/2004
02/2009
0.76$ 0.42 1.02$ 5.28 1.29$ 10.28 1.63$ 16.75 03/2009
02/2014
2.16$ 3.39 11.30%
7Y -1.90 03/2002
02/2009
0.87$ 3.10 1.23$ 4.40 1.35$ 7.71 1.68$ 11.71 03/2009
02/2016
2.17$ 4.40 1.44%
10Y -1.71 03/1999
02/2009
0.84$ 3.40 1.39$ 5.50 1.70$ 7.26 2.01$ 10.82 03/2009
02/2019
2.79$ 4.31 2.49%
15Y 2.24 03/1994
02/2009
1.39$ 3.65 1.71$ 4.66 1.98$ 5.80 2.32$ 7.41 02/2003
01/2018
2.92$ 7.14 0.00%
20Y 3.09 04/2000
03/2020
1.83$ 4.31 2.32$ 5.18 2.74$ 5.93 3.16$ 6.39 11/2001
10/2021
3.44$ 4.98 0.00%
30Y 5.30 12/1993
11/2023
4.70$ 5.30 4.70$ 5.30 4.70$ 5.30 4.70$ 5.30 12/1993
11/2023
4.70$ 5.30 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

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Rolling
Period

Worst Period

15th Percentile

50th Percentile

85th Percentile

Best Period

LatestNegative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.84 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -2.65 0.97$ 11.95 1.11$ 22.21 1.22$ 53.97 07/1982
06/1983
1.53$ 8.15 19.18%
2Y -21.61 03/2007
02/2009
0.61$ 2.45 1.04$ 11.22 1.23$ 17.73 1.38$ 35.43 07/1984
06/1986
1.83$ -2.14 12.66%
3Y -11.08 03/2006
02/2009
0.70$ 3.14 1.09$ 10.36 1.34$ 16.31 1.57$ 33.03 08/1984
07/1987
2.35$ 4.02 9.80%
5Y -2.71 03/2004
02/2009
0.87$ 3.95 1.21$ 10.15 1.62$ 15.43 2.04$ 28.16 08/1982
07/1987
3.45$ 7.56 1.02%
7Y 0.61 03/2002
02/2009
1.04$ 6.04 1.50$ 9.44 1.88$ 14.36 2.55$ 22.48 08/1982
07/1989
4.13$ 8.06 0.00%
10Y 0.83 03/1999
02/2009
1.08$ 6.70 1.91$ 9.59 2.49$ 14.58 3.90$ 18.56 09/1977
08/1987
5.48$ 7.22 0.00%
15Y 4.79 03/1994
02/2009
2.01$ 6.66 2.63$ 9.46 3.87$ 14.24 7.36$ 17.15 10/1974
09/1989
10.73$ 9.80 0.00%
20Y 5.22 04/2000
03/2020
2.76$ 7.33 4.11$ 9.84 6.53$ 13.47 12.52$ 14.93 04/1980
03/2000
16.17$ 7.69 0.00%
30Y 7.51 11/1993
10/2023
8.77$ 8.30 10.92$ 10.24 18.65$ 11.98 29.78$ 13.03 07/1970
06/2000
39.41$ 7.94 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

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Rolling
Period

Worst Period

15th Percentile

50th Percentile

85th Percentile

Best Period

LatestNegative
Periods
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
Growth
of 1$
Ann.
Return
From
To
Growth
of 1$
1Y -37.98 03/2008
02/2009
0.62$ -6.57 0.93$ 7.89 1.07$ 18.19 1.18$ 50.10 07/1982
06/1983
1.50$ 4.86 27.04%
2Y -23.37 10/1972
09/1974
0.58$ -2.88 0.94$ 6.39 1.13$ 14.44 1.30$ 31.91 08/1984
07/1986
1.74$ -6.90 20.03%
3Y -13.01 03/2006
02/2009
0.65$ -1.33 0.96$ 6.22 1.19$ 12.74 1.43$ 29.14 08/1984
07/1987
2.15$ -1.56 18.79%
5Y -5.47 01/1970
12/1974
0.75$ 0.30 1.01$ 5.77 1.32$ 11.48 1.72$ 24.26 08/1982
07/1987
2.96$ 3.39 13.10%
7Y -2.88 04/1973
03/1980
0.81$ 2.75 1.20$ 5.62 1.46$ 10.60 2.02$ 18.29 08/1982
07/1989
3.24$ 4.40 6.03%
10Y -2.16 08/1972
07/1982
0.80$ 2.97 1.34$ 6.34 1.84$ 9.87 2.56$ 12.78 08/1982
07/1992
3.32$ 4.31 3.98%
15Y 2.24 03/1994
02/2009
1.39$ 4.15 1.83$ 5.86 2.35$ 9.00 3.64$ 12.54 08/1982
07/1997
5.88$ 7.14 0.00%
20Y 3.09 04/2000
03/2020
1.83$ 4.92 2.61$ 5.93 3.16$ 8.53 5.14$ 10.65 04/1980
03/2000
7.56$ 4.98 0.00%
30Y 4.83 02/1973
01/2003
4.11$ 5.54 5.04$ 6.55 6.70$ 7.34 8.36$ 7.95 11/1977
10/2007
9.91$ 5.30 0.00%
Annualized rolling and percentiles/median returns over full calendar month periods

If you need a deeper detail about rolling returns, please refer to the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: Rolling Returns page.

Seasonality

In which months is it better to invest in Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio?

Both the Average Return and the Gain Frequency (Win %) are useful to get an idea of what happened in the past.
For further information about the seasonality, check the

Asset Class Seasonality

page.

Swipe left to see all data

Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency

1.77
40%

-1.43
40%

-0.84
80%

1.88
80%

-0.07
60%

1.44
80%

3.00
100%

-0.16
40%

-3.45
20%

1.37
60%

4.97
80%

0.01
60%

Best 7.1
2019
2.2
2019
2.4
2021
8.9
2020
3.9
2020
5.2
2019
6.3
2022
4.3
2020
1.6
2019
4.6
2021
9.6
2020
3.9
2020
Worst -4.6
2022
-5.6
2020
-11.9
2020
-7.1
2022
-4.2
2019
-6.7
2022
0.4
2019
-3.9
2022
-8.5
2022
-2.6
2023
-1.9
2021
-6.0
2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Nov 2023

Swipe left to see all data

Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency

0.74
40%

-0.14
50%

0.17
70%

1.33
90%

0.52
80%

0.87
80%

2.26
90%

-0.17
50%

-2.02
30%

0.84
60%

3.09
80%

0.26
60%

Best 7.1
2019
4.1
2014
6.3
2016
8.9
2020
3.9
2020
5.2
2019
6.3
2022
4.3
2020
1.6
2019
5.8
2015
9.6
2020
3.9
2020
Worst -4.6
2022
-5.6
2020
-11.9
2020
-7.1
2022
-4.2
2019
-6.7
2022
-1.4
2014
-5.4
2015
-8.5
2022
-6.0
2018
-1.9
2021
-6.0
2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Nov 2023

Swipe left to see all data

Monthly Average Return (%) and Gain Frequency
Return (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Average
Gain Frequency

1.09
59%

0.47
57%

0.98
70%

1.41
78%

0.45
59%

0.57
63%

1.00
61%

0.36
61%

-0.36
57%

0.60
61%

1.72
74%

1.67
77%

Best 10.8
1975
6.7
1986
7.2
1986
10.4
2009
7.4
1990
5.2
2019
7.4
2009
9.6
1982
7.2
2010
11.8
1974
9.6
2020
7.4
1991
Worst -8.8
2009
-8.8
2009
-11.9
2020
-8.3
1970
-6.6
2010
-6.7
2008
-6.5
2002
-11.4
1998
-8.5
2022
-16.5
2008
-9.0
1973
-6.0
2018

Monthly Seasonality over the period Feb 1970 - Nov 2023

Monthly Returns

This section provides a visual/tabular representation of the performance variability in the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio over time. It illustrates the distribution of monthly returns, showcasing the range and frequency of positive and negative returns.

RICK FERRI CORE FOUR PORTFOLIO

Monthly Returns Distribution

Data Source: 1 December 1993 - 30 November 2023 (30 Years)

Data Source: 1 January 1970 - 30 November 2023 (~54 years)

233 Positive Months (65%) - 127 Negative Months (35%)

420 Positive Months (65%) - 227 Negative Months (35%)

Swipe left to see all data

(Scroll down to see all data)

Investment Returns, up to December 2007, have been derived using the historical series of equivalent ETFs / Assets, instead of the actual ETFs of the portfolio.
You can find additional information on extended Data Sources here.

In particular, the series derived from equivalent datasets are:

  • VTI - Vanguard Total Stock Market (VTI), up to December 2001
  • VEU - Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US (VEU), up to December 2007
  • VNQ - Vanguard Real Estate (VNQ), up to December 2004
  • BND - Vanguard Total Bond Market (BND), up to December 2007

Portfolio efficiency

The following portfolios granted a higher return over 30 Years and a less severe drawdown at the same time.

Swipe left to see all data

30 Years Stats (%)

% Allocation

Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.76 12.35 -43.61 80200
US Stocks Minimum Volatility +9.58 13.72 -43.27 10000
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 Momentum +9.34 9.56 -32.52 60400
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 +9.02 12.49 -41.09 80200
Simple Path to Wealth JL Collins +8.78 11.75 -38.53 75250
Robust Alpha Architect +8.67 11.09 -44.20 702010
Shield Strategy Aim Ways +8.61 8.84 -19.36 423820
Dedalo Four Dedalo Invest +8.28 12.41 -43.94 80200
Aim Bold Strategy Aim Ways +8.24 9.93 -30.09 454015
Late Sixties and Beyond Burton Malkiel +8.13 11.69 -41.80 71290
Weird Portfolio Value Stock Geek +8.02 10.75 -32.97 602020
Talmud Portfolio Roger Gibson +8.01 10.81 -40.17 66.733.30
Stocks/Bonds 60/40 +7.99 9.61 -30.55 60400
Yale Endowment David Swensen +7.98 10.99 -39.48 70300
Seven Value Scott Burns +7.96 11.31 -41.22 71.528.50
Core Four Rick Ferri +7.94 12.21 -44.44 80200

Here's a list containing the Best Classic Portfolios, with the highest returns over 30 Years and Very High Risk categorization.

Swipe left to see all data

30 Years Stats (%)

% Allocation

Portfolio Author Return Dev.Std Drawdown Stocks Bonds Comm
Technology +13.75 24.01 -81.08 10000
US Stocks Momentum +12.01 15.28 -53.85 10000
Stocks/Bonds 80/20 Momentum +10.76 12.35 -43.61 80200
US Stocks +9.90 15.52 -50.84 10000
US Stocks Value +9.71 15.36 -55.41 10000

Analyze your Portfolio: Backtest Now!
Explore historical data since 1871 and fine-tune your investment strategy for better results.

As an enthusiast with a demonstrable understanding of the provided financial data, I'll delve into the concepts and information presented in the article:

  1. Data Source and Timeline:

    • The data spans from January 1970 to November 2023, covering approximately 54 years.
    • The article provides consolidated returns as of November 30, 2023, and a live update as of December 22, 2023.
  2. Portfolio Overview:

    • The Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio is described as a Very High Risk portfolio.
    • Asset Allocation: 80% in Stocks, 20% in Fixed Income, and 0% in Commodities.
    • Implemented with four ETFs, with 48% in VTI (Vanguard Total Stock Market), 24% in VEU (Vanguard FTSE All-World ex-US), 8% in VNQ (Vanguard Real Estate), and 20% in BND (Vanguard Total Bond Market).
    • Historical Performance: The portfolio achieved a 7.94% compound annual return over the last 30 years, with a 12.21% standard deviation.
  3. Returns and Metrics:

    • Returns are presented for various timeframes, including 1 day, 1 month, 6 months, 1 year, 5 years, 10 years, and a maximum of approximately 54 years.
    • Metrics such as Investment Return, Inflation Adjusted Return, Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, and Ulcer Index are calculated for different timeframes.
  4. Drawdowns:

    • Drawdowns are discussed, detailing the periods of decline in the portfolio's value, the depth of drawdowns, and the time taken to recover.
    • The article provides information on the Deepest Drawdown Depth, Longest Drawdown, and the Start, Bottom, and End dates for significant drawdowns.
  5. Risk Indicators:

    • Risk indicators include Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Ulcer Index, Return / Standard Deviation Ratio, and Return / Deepest Drawdown Ratio.
  6. Rolling Returns:

    • Rolling returns are analyzed for different periods, such as 1 year, 2 years, 3 years, 5 years, 7 years, 10 years, 15 years, 20 years, and 30 years.
    • Percentiles and the worst and best periods are provided, giving insight into the consistency of returns over rolling periods.
  7. Withdrawal Rates:

    • Safe Withdrawal Rate (SWR) and Perpetual Withdrawal Rate (PWR) are discussed, providing information on the percentage of the original portfolio balance that can be withdrawn.
  8. Correlation Analysis:

    • Monthly correlations between the components of the portfolio (VTI, VEU, VNQ, BND) are presented, indicating how the returns of these assets move in relation to each other.
  9. Additional Information:

    • The article includes information on live updates, world market performance in 2022, dividend yield in 2022, capital growth since December 1993 and January 1970, and readings that might be of interest to the audience.

By comprehensively examining these concepts, the article provides a detailed and data-driven analysis of the Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio's historical performance, risk indicators, and withdrawal characteristics.

Rick Ferri Core Four Portfolio: ETF allocation and returns (2024)
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