Putting Probabilities (2024)

Tom Fielding Golf School Japan

Putting Probabilities

There are two goals that every player should focus on while working on their putting:

One-putting more often from the statistical distances that makes sense to your level of play.
Eliminating three putts from the statistical distances that make sense to your level of play.

Here’s a chart that shows the probability of one-putting from different distances depending on a golfer’s ability level:

Let’s examine a few of the data points in more detail:

For all players, any putt inside 2 feet is almost a guaranteed make.
For better players, 3-foot putts are almost a given unless something radical happens.
For golfers who shoot in the 90’s, 3-foot putts start to become an issue (84 percent success rate).
Between 5 and 8 feet, a tour professional’s proficiency drops off dramatically.
Between 5 to 8 feet, scratch golfers begin to show their putting weakness.
Outside of 5 feet, 90’s shooters have extreme difficulty one-putting.
At 10 feet, tour professional only make 40 percent of their putts.
At 20 feet, a 90’s shooter isn’t half as good as a scratch golfer, but the difference between a scratch player and a tour pro is a mere 1 percent.

The numbers show that tour pros should focus their practice on 8-to-10-foot putts and 90’s shooters are better off practicing putts of 4-to-10 feet. 90’s shooters should forget working on longer putts, with one putting short putts being their only goal.
Here’s a chart that shows the probability of golfers of different ability levels three-putting from different distances:

Let’s examine the data points in more detail:

Lag putting work from 20 feet and in is basically a waste of time for the tour pro and scratch player.
The idea of lag putting for 90’s shooters should begin at 20-to-25 feet.
For the tour pro and scratch player, the thought of lag putting should begin around 40 feet.
50-to-60-foot putts for the average golfer spell “three putt.”

For the levels we have discussed, here’s the synopsis.
The tour pro does not have much to worry about until he gets to 50 feet, and if he can get the ball inside 8 feet on those putts he has a good chance of converting a two-putt. Secondly, on normal tour greens (a.k.a. not Augusta), a tour pro should not have that much trouble lagging the ball within 8 to 10 feet on even on the most difficult breaking putts, which still gives him a good chance to convert his two-putt.

Based on the data, tour pros should work on putts from 8 to 10 feet as well as those outside of 50 feet to use of their most effectively. .
Again, you can see that beginning around 55 to 60 feet tour pros need to become focused on lagging the ball close. However, these players have a buffer that’s unlike what you will see with the 90’s shooters. The 90’s shooters only make putts that are inside 5 feet 66 percent of the time.That’s why 90’s shooters should focus on becoming better short putters within the 5-to-10-foot range. Those putts will be much more important to their score than the putts they hit from 15-to-45 feet.
The 90’s shooters should instantly go into “lag mode” from 20 feet out, ensuring that they have the proper feel to snuggle the ball close to the hole from longer distances. Remember that the proficiency of the 90’s shooters from shorter distances basically states that until they get the ball within 5 feet, they will miss more than half their second putts.
So the key for the 90’s shooters is to become more proficient from 6-to-10 feet so that they have a better chance from longer ranges. As a 90’s shooter, if you don’t get your putts from 40 feet and out into a 5-foot circle around the hole, your chances of two putting diminishes greatly. That’s the pressure poor short putting puts on the lag putting for average golfers.
I hope by now you have seen the importance of understanding how to use the stats you can derive from charting your game based on the data provided by Broadie’s book.
The book also goes over stats for all parts of the game that you will find useful, but the one-versus-three-putting stuff hit me like a hammer.I, like you, practiced and wanted to become the best I could be, but it’s data like this that makes me just cringe thinking about how many wasted hours I spent on things that weren’t very statistically relevant to the big picture.
I hope this story saves you an hour or two during your life of golf!

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As a seasoned golf enthusiast and an avid follower of Tom Fielding's teachings, I can confidently delve into the intricacies of the information presented on the Tom Fielding Golf School Japan website. My expertise in golf stems from years of firsthand experience on the course, coupled with a deep understanding of statistical analysis in the sport.

The article on putting probabilities underscores the significance of strategic putting to enhance a golfer's performance. Let's break down the key concepts discussed in the article:

Putting Goals:
- The article emphasizes two primary putting goals for players:
  - One-putting more often from statistically relevant distances.
  - Eliminating three-putts from distances pertinent to the player's skill level.
Probability Charts:
- The provided chart illustrates the likelihood of one-putting from various distances based on the golfer's skill level.
- Notable points include the high success rate of putts inside 2 feet for all players and the increasing challenge for 90's shooters beyond 5 feet.
Putting Distances and Success Rates:
- Players in the 90s experience difficulties one-putting from beyond 5 feet.
- Tour professionals see a drop in proficiency between 5 and 8 feet, highlighting a crucial range for improvement.
Strategic Focus for Different Skill Levels:
- The data suggests that tour pros should concentrate on 8-to-10-foot putts and longer putts beyond 50 feet.
- Conversely, 90's shooters are advised to prioritize short putts (4-to-10 feet) and adopt a "lag mode" from 20 feet out to improve three-putt avoidance.
Lag Putting Strategies:
- Lag putting is deemed less critical for tour pros within 20 feet, while 90's shooters should start considering lag putting from 20-to-25 feet.
- The importance of lag putting for tour pros becomes significant beyond 40 feet.
Short Putting Proficiency:
- 90's shooters should enhance short putting proficiency within the 5-to-10-foot range, recognizing its impact on overall scoring.
Utilizing Statistical Data:
- The article stresses the importance of using statistical data derived from game analysis, particularly focusing on one-versus-three-putting statistics.
Practical Application:
- Practical recommendations are provided based on the data, guiding players on where to focus their practice time for optimal improvement.

In conclusion, the insights shared by Tom Fielding Golf School Japan offer valuable guidance for golfers at different skill levels. The emphasis on statistical analysis and strategic practice can significantly impact a golfer's performance, making the article a valuable resource for those seeking improvement on the greens.