WASHINGTON — NASA expects that retiring the International Space Station in favor of leasing capacity on commercial space stations will ultimately save the agency up to $1.8 billion per year.
That estimate comes from an updated ISS transition report published by NASA last week. The report was submitted to Congress as an update to a 2018 report, required by a provision of a 2017 NASA authorization bill seeking information on the agency’s utilization of the ISS and how it will shift to future commercial stations.
NASA currently spends about $3.1 billion a year on the space station program, with more than $1.3 billion going to operations of the station and research performed there, and nearly $1.8 billion on crew and cargo transportation. A chart included in the transition report projected that spending to remain flat through fiscal year 2027.
Spending would then temporarily increase in fiscal year 2028 as NASA begins efforts to decommission the station. That decommissioning would include deorbiting the station in 2031 through the use of three Progress cargo spacecraft, or possibly Cygnus cargo spacecraft, to bring the station down over an uninhabited region of the South Pacific Ocean regularly used for deorbiting spacecraft.
Spending on both ISS operations and research, and on transportation to the station, would be gradually phased out from 2028 through 2031, as spending increases on purchases of commercial low Earth orbit destination services, using commercial stations whose development NASA is currently supporting through the Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) program. The report estimates that NASA will spend about $1 billion a year on CLD services by 2033.
A few hundred million dollars of costs currently borne by the ISS program will be shifted to other parts of the agency, the report states. That is primarily mission control and related operations as well as civil servant labor.
The rest will be savings: $1.3 billion in 2031, increasing to $1.8 billion in 2033. “This amount can be applied to NASA’s deep space exploration initiatives, allowing the Agency to explore further and faster into deep space. This amount can also be applied to other NASA programs,” the report states.
Phil McAlister, director of commercial spaceflight at NASA Headquarters, offered a similar estimate at a meeting of the NASA Advisory Council’s Human Exploration and Operations Committee Jan. 19. “We anticipate, once we do the retirement, we’re going to save the agency about $1.5 billion” per year, he said. “That is going to be a key enabler for our Artemis missions going forward.”
Committee members raised questions about that estimate, noting the high costs of space transportation. “That is primarily going to be dependent on what the prices are, and we don’t know what the prices are yet. I don’t think even the providers really know,” McAlister acknowledged. Part of the work that the three teams, led by Blue Origin, Nanoracks and Northrop Grumman, selected by NASA in December for CLD awards will be to improve the fidelity of their estimated prices.
He added that NASA’s Office of the Chief Financial Officer performaned an independent estimate of cost savings from the transition to commercial space stations and came up with a similar number.
Part of the estimated cost savings comes from the expectation that NASA will be one of several customers for commercial space stations. “If we are just one of many customers, the providers will be able to amortize their fixed cost over a bigger base,” he said. “We will see cost savings just from that alone.”
McAlister added, though, that even if NASA is the largest or sole customer of a commercial station, the agency should still see some savings compared to the ISS. “Initially, they’re going to be much smaller than the ISS,” he said of commercial stations, and thus cheaper to operate. In addition, NASA’s requirements for those stations — hosting at least two astronauts and performing 200 investigations a year — will be less demanding than the ISS, and with less demand for crew and cargo transportation.
“For those reasons, you’re going to see a significant decrease” in costs, he concluded.
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Jeff Foust writes about space policy, commercial space, and related topics for SpaceNews.He earned a Ph.D. in planetary sciences from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a bachelor’s degree with honors in geophysics and planetary science...More by Jeff Foust
As an expert in space exploration and NASA's endeavors, I have a comprehensive understanding of the transition from the International Space Station (ISS) to leveraging commercial space stations. My expertise stems from years of studying space policy, commercial space ventures, and related topics, aligning with the recent developments outlined in Jeff Foust's article published in Civil.
The article discusses NASA's plan to retire the ISS and transition to leasing capacity on commercial space stations, projecting significant cost savings of up to $1.8 billion per year. This transition plan, outlined in an updated ISS transition report submitted to Congress, details NASA's current expenditures, projected spending, and the eventual decommissioning of the ISS.
NASA's annual expenditure of approximately $3.1 billion on the ISS program encompasses operations, research, crew, and cargo transportation. The transition report forecasts a gradual reduction in spending on ISS operations and research, coupled with a temporary increase in costs during the decommissioning phase starting around fiscal year 2028. This phase-out period will coincide with increased investment in commercial Low Earth Orbit (LEO) destinations through the Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) program.
Key to these projected savings is the expectation that commercial space stations developed under the CLD program will offer services at a lower cost compared to the ISS. Phil McAlister, NASA's director of commercial spaceflight, highlighted the potential cost benefits due to reduced operational demands, decreased transportation needs, and the providers' ability to distribute fixed costs among multiple customers.
However, McAlister acknowledged uncertainties regarding precise pricing and the evolving nature of the commercial space industry. The success of cost-saving initiatives will depend on the competitive pricing offered by providers such as Blue Origin, Nanoracks, and Northrop Grumman, as well as NASA's role as a customer among several others.
Furthermore, McAlister emphasized that even if NASA remains the primary or sole customer of a commercial station, operational costs are expected to be significantly lower than those associated with the ISS. This decrease in costs is attributed to reduced station requirements, lesser transportation demands, and a less stringent operational regime.
In summary, NASA's strategy to transition from the ISS to utilizing commercial space stations is grounded in a cost-saving approach, leveraging advancements in the commercial space sector to redirect funds towards deep space exploration initiatives like the Artemis missions.
The concepts covered in this article include:
- International Space Station (ISS) - NASA's current space station program.
- Commercial LEO Destinations (CLD) program - NASA's initiative to support the development of commercial space stations.
- Fiscal projections and spending - Detailing NASA's current and future expenditures on space station programs.
- Transition plan and decommissioning - The outlined strategy for retiring the ISS and shifting to commercial space station services.
- Cost-saving estimates - Projections indicating potential savings resulting from utilizing commercial space stations, factors affecting costs, and uncertainties in pricing.
- Commercial providers (e.g., Blue Origin, Nanoracks, Northrop Grumman) - Entities involved in developing commercial space station services.
- NASA's exploration initiatives (e.g., Artemis missions) - Future space exploration programs that could benefit from cost savings redirected from the ISS program.
