Gold Price Forecast for 2023, 2025, 2030 and Beyond (2024)

Gold price (XAU/USD) rebounded strongly in 2023, refreshing its all-time highs. However, the prices of the precious metal had a major correction from May to September. This downtrend now seems to be over as the dollar strength index has flipped bearish.

As a result, Gold is on track to make a new all-time high in the coming weeks, provided it holds the magical level of $1,985 which is like a line in the sand. Silver is also following Gold in this bullish trend which seems to be fuelled by the belief that the Fed tightening could be nearing its end.

XAU/USD Remains Steady Amid Sticky Inflation

The CPI data for October was another blow to the bullion bears as the YoY inflation came at only 3.2%. This was less than the market-estimated figure of 3.3% and hence caused a surge in the risk assets and the precious metals.

The PCE inflation, which is the Fed’s preferred gauge of inflation, also increased in July 2023. As per the recently released data, the Personal Consumption Expenditure increased by 0.2% and 3.3% on MoM and YoY basis, respectively. However, this was offset by the weakening job market as the latest data showed a downtick in job creation.

Please note that the original article was published in September 2022. However, we update it regularly to incorporate all the latest information. You are also welcome to join my free Telegram group for up-to-date analysis on Gold & Bitcoin.

Gold news

After a pause in rate hikes in September, the US Federal Reserve took a similar stance in the recently concluded November FOMC meeting. The back to back pauses in rate hikes have boosted the investor sentiment in the equity and commodity markets. As a result, the dollar strength index has also started to correct.

Consequently, analysts are expecting the Fed to maintain its pause in the December FOMC meeting. In fact, many veterans are expecting the central bank to start cutting interest rates as soon as the second of 2024.

XAU/USD And Its Correlation With The DXY Index

The dollar strength index tracks the strength of the USD against a basket of major global currencies. This index has recently broken its uptrend and is now gaining downward momentum. In the event the DXY index drops below 100 points, it is very hard to see Gold below a new ATH.

The gold price chart has been historically inversely correlated to the DXY index.
Therefore, if the going correction in the US dollar deepens, precious metal prices may soar. The dollar strength index is currently struggling to break above 107 points.

Gold Price Historical Chart

In August 2020, the gold price rallied to an all-time high of $2,072.85, surpassing the previous record high of $1,924.77 it hit nine years before. With the subsequent decline, the psychologically crucial zone of $2,000 has remained evasive. However, it has remained above $1,600 since rising above it at the peak of the coronavirus pandemic in April 2020.

Gold price crashed to $1,616 on September 28, 2022. This price was about 21.88% from its highest point in 2022. This crash coincided with a period when the Federal Reserve was hiking interest rates aggressively in a bid to fight soaring inflation. It then started rising after signs emerged that inflation was starting to ease in the US.

Bullion has performed really well this year. After a sell-off in 2022, the precious metal soared 14% in the first four months of 2023. After a pullback in September 2023, the price has been in the midst of recovery.

Gold Price Forecast & Latest Analysis Analysis

I accurately predicted a bounce from the $1810 in XAU/USD pair in my previous forecasts. This prediction was perfectly met as the price is now trading 10% above its October lows.

As the price now seems to have gained strength above $1,985, the path of least resistance is a new all-time highs above $2,075. The falling DXY index is contributing to this bullish outlook as the weakening dollar and falling bond yields have been the biggest tailwind for bullion according to history.

I’ll keep posting my updated outlook on Gold and other assets in my freeTelegramgroup, which you’re welcome to join.

Gold Price Forecast 2025

The gold price forecast 2025 is largely an extrapolation of the influential factors in the current year. At the beginning of the year, Goldman Sachs indicated that the commodities bull market observed in the past year will likely continue into the current year and beyond. Indeed, the investment bank holds that the commodities supercycle will last for about 10 years.

The precious metal may reach a new all-time high of $2,200 an ounce based on this narrative. In addition, aIn addition, a tighter Fed policy and subsequent decline in economic growth will likely boost its performance as a risk-on asset.

However, even with the bullish gold price forecast 2025, competition from Bitcoin as a store of value may limit its upward potential.

Gold Price Forecast 2030

A feasible gold price forecast 2030 is founded on US dollar movements due to the existing inverse correlation. In the event of geopolitical tensions, gold may find some support in its status as a safe haven. However, its upward momentum may be limited by a rise in the demand for the greenback.

Over the past eight years, gold price has risen by about 60%. However, an assumption that the bull market will continue over the next eight years makes a surge of 50% viable. In that case, the gold price forecast for 2030 will be for the precious metal to hit a high of about $2,700 an ounce.

How to invest in gold

One of the viable ways to invest in gold is by buying bullion. It may be in coins or bars, certified with purity and weight have. Then, one can purchase or sell the physical gold to a reputable dealer. However, security reasons often lead some investors to embrace the route of futures and options.

Best gold stocks to invest in

One of the best ways to invest in gold is through stocks. In the past few years, mergers and acquisitions in the sector has led to a significant consolidation in the sector. Today, only a few large companies dominate the industry.

Barrick Gold, a company valued at $29 billion, is one of the best gold stocks to invest in. Its stock has dropped by about 7.95%. The other excellent stock to buy is Wheaton Precious Metals, which is worth over $17 billion. Unlike other gold companies, Wheaton does not do the real mining. Instead, the company has purchased rights for key gold assets. As such, it has a net income margin of 71% compared to Barrick Gold’s 16%.

The other best gold stocks to invest in are Franco-Nevada, Newmont Corporation, and Agnico Eagle mine. The chart below shows the performance of some of the biggest gold stocks in the industry.

Gold futures

Futures are a contract in which one agrees to buy or sell the financial asset at the agreed-upon price before the expiry of the contract. For options, the investor has a chance and not an obligation to buy or sell the underlying instrument for as long as the contract is valid. To invest in gold via futures and options, one needs an account with a reputable financial broker. It is possible to trade in gold for a commission through the brokerage account.

Gold ETFs

ETFs and mutual funds are yet another viable way to invest in gold. A share of this financial instrument represents a specific amount of gold. One needs a brokerage account to trade in gold ETFs or mutual funds, like in futures and options.

In addition to the aforementioned ways of investing in gold, an investor can consider buying stocks of gold mining companies like Barrick Gold Corp. (GOLD) or Newmont Corp. (NEM). While the share price is usually correlated to gold price, the firm’s fundamentals are also influential.

The chart below shows some of the most popular gold ETFs, including the iShares Gold Trust and SPDR Gold Trust. As you can see, these ETFs tend to move in sync with gold prices.

Summary

As was the case in 2021, gold’s relation with inflation has mixed. In 2023, the trend will likely continue as inflationary pressures continue to boost the precious metal. Nonetheless, an environment of higher interest rates may curb its upward potential.