Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF: Risk And Reward Profile Not Attractive (NYSEARCA:SOXL) (2024)

ETF Overview

Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF (NYSEARCA:SOXL) aims to seek 3x the daily investment return of the Philadelphia Semiconductor Sector Index ("PHLX"). The fund has very high risk as it uses leverage achieve 3x of the daily returns of the index. Although it may offer substantial returns, it can also result in substantial losses if the index declines. The fund is not a good long-term investment choice and is only suitable for investors with a short-term investment horizon. Given the fact that the semiconductor industry is facing some near-term uncertainties, we think it may be better for investors to stay on the sidelines.

Fund Analysis

SOXL is a leveraged-ETF

Unlike other ETFs that only include stocks and some cash in their portfolios, SOXL uses financial derivatives and debt to amplify the daily performance of PHLX. In fact, as the title of SOXL suggests, it seeks to leverage the performance by 3x the result of the daily return. Therefore, investors may be able to magnify its return by 3x in a particular day. On the other hand, SOXL’s fund value can shrink quickly if PHLX declines in value. Therefore, leveraged ETF is a double-edged sword and the risk is very high. Therefore, SOXL is only suitable for investors with experience and willing to take on high risks.

This ETF is not a long-term play

Like any other leveraged ETFs, SOXL is not suitable to own in the long-term. There are several reasons. First, it has a much higher expense ratio of 0.96% than regular ETF that tracks the PHLX. Other ETFs such as iShares PHLX SOX Semiconductor Sector Index ETF (SOXX) has a much lower ratio of 0.46%. Second, SOXL rebalances daily. Since leverage needs to be reset on a daily basis, there is a high likelihood that SOXL will underperform the PHLX index. Let us use a simple example and assume that SOXX and SOXL's price starts at $100 per unit. In an ideal world where there is no expenses, if SOXX declined by 5% in one day, SOXL's fund value will decline by 15%. Hence, SOXX's price will decline to $95 and SOXL will decline to $85. The next day, if SOXX gained 5%, its price will return to $99.75. Hence, the loss will be 0.25% over two days. Many investors might think that SOXL's value would loss by about 0.75%. However, since SOXL resets daily, its fund price will only climb to $97.75 (a 15% gain from $85). Therefore, the actual loss is magnified to 2.25% instead of 0.75%. Therefore, the fact that SOXL rebalances daily makes it only suitable for investors with a short-term investment horizon. As can be seen from the chart below, SOXL’s fund performance of 59.7% in the past 3 year is much lower than SOXX’s 75.6%.

Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF: Risk And Reward Profile Not Attractive (NYSEARCA:SOXL) (1)

Should you be bullish on the semiconductor industry now?

Now that we have discussed some fundamentals of SOXL, we will discuss whether this ETF is a good choice to invest in the near-term. We know that the semiconductor industry has the potential to grow its market by a growth rate of 4% annually from 2020 to 2024. However, as we have discussed earlier, SOXL is not a fund suitable for investors with a long-term investment horizon. Therefore, we need to consider if the semiconductor industry will grow in the second half of 2020. According to IDC, the semiconductor industry is expected to decline by 7.2% in 2020 (excluding DRAM and flash). Decline is expected to be broad-based across different segments due to the impact of COVID-19 (see table below). Although the U.S. job report in May appears to be very positive, much of the semiconductor industry growth also depends on emerging markets. Given the fact that many emerging markets are also experiencing challenges due to COVID-19, it is hard to be very optimistic.

Growth in 2020 (%)

Smartphone

-6%

Consumer areas

-11.5%

Automotive

-14%

Industrial

-11.4%

Source: Created by author; IDC

In the near-term, the semiconductor industry may also be impacted by the U.S. government’s policy towards banning semiconductor exports to China’s Huawei Technologies. This may suppress semiconductor demand also. Given these near-term headwinds, it appears that SOXL is not the best place to invest right now.

Investor Takeaway

As we have discussed in our article, we believe SOXL is only suitable for experienced investors that have a short-term investment horizon. Given the fact that the semiconductor industry is facing some near-term headwinds, the risk and reward profile is not attractive. Therefore, we think it may be better to wait on the sidelines.

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Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF: Risk And Reward Profile Not Attractive (NYSEARCA:SOXL) (2)

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Direxion Daily Semiconductor 3x Bull Shares ETF: Risk And Reward Profile Not Attractive (NYSEARCA:SOXL) (2024)

FAQs

Is SOXL high risk? ›

SOXL was first introduced on March 11, 2010, with an annual expense ratio of 0.99%, which is relatively high compared to other ETFs and mutual funds. It is a high-risk, high-reward investment option for investors seeking to amplify their semiconductor sector exposure.

What is the dividend for Direxion Daily Semiconductor bull 3x shares? ›

Direxion Daily Semiconductor Bull 3x Shares (SOXL)

SOXL has a dividend yield of 0.46% and paid $0.12 per share in the past year. The dividend is paid every three months and the last ex-dividend date was Mar 21, 2023.

Is SOXL a good long-term investment? ›

SOXL is a trading vehicle and not a long-term investment, but if traders are looking for short-term bullish leveraged exposure to the semiconductor industry it suits that purpose well.

Is SOXL stock a good buy? ›

The SOXL ETF holds buy signals from both short and long-term moving averages giving a positive forecast for the stock.

Why triple leveraged ETFs are bad? ›

The inherent structural problem with leveraged ETFs, especially the triple leveraged ETFs, is they're only designed to be held short-term as they only mirror the single-day performance of the underlying asset. To maintain a consistent leverage ratio (2X or 3X), they're rebalanced nightly.

What is the danger of triple leveraged ETFs? ›

Since they maintain a fixed level of leverage, 3x ETFs eventually face complete collapse if the underlying index declines more than 33% on a single day. Even if none of these potential disasters occur, 3x ETFs have high fees that add up to significant losses in the long run.

What ETF pays the highest dividend per share? ›

Top 100 Highest Dividend Yield ETFs
SymbolNameDividend Yield
FLRUFranklin FTSE Russia ETF24696.43%
SOGUAXS Short De-SPAC Daily ETF82.77%
PYPTAXS 1.5X PYPL Bull Daily ETF55.75%
KBAKraneShares Bosera MSCI China A 50 Connect Index ETF54.31%
91 more rows

What is the highest growth dividend ETF? ›

Compare the best dividend ETFs
ETFCategoryDividend yield
Proshares S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats ETF (NOBL)U.S. large value1.99%
iShares Core Dividend Growth ETF (DGRO)U.S. large value2.45%
SPDR S&P Dividend ETF (SDY)U.S. mid value2.67%
WisdomTree US Quality Dividend Growth Fund (DGRW)U.S. large blend2.11%
3 more rows
Jun 1, 2023

What happened to Direxion? ›

The Funds will cease trading on the NYSE Arca, Inc. (“NYSE”) and will be closed to purchase by investors as of the close of regular trading on the NYSE on September 23, 2022 (the “Closing Date”). The Funds will not accept purchase orders after the Closing Date.

Is it OK to hold ETF long term? ›

Bottom Line. Leveraged ETFs decay due to the compounding effect of daily returns, volatility of the market and the cost of leverage. The volatility drag of leveraged ETFs means that losses in the ETF can be magnified over time and they are not suitable for long-term investments.

Should long term investors avoid ETFs? ›

ETFs are very safe and are an excellent option for long-term investments. According to experts, ETFs are not that volatile and show a slight change in their prices compared to stocks and indices because they are diversified and pooled investments of many investors.

What are the safest stocks to buy long term? ›

Best safe stocks to buy
  1. Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway (BRK. ...
  2. The Walt Disney Company. ...
  3. Vanguard High-Dividend Yield ETF. ...
  4. Procter & Gamble. ...
  5. Vanguard Real Estate Index Fund. ...
  6. Starbucks. ...
  7. Apple.

What is the price prediction for SOXL 2024? ›

Future price of the stock is predicted at 79.599510459217$ (211.422% ) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your current investment may be worth 311.422$ on 2024 June 14, Friday.

What is the stock price prediction for SOXL? ›

Semiconductor Bull SOXL share price forecast & targets for Intra Day are 24.46, 24.83, 24.09 on the downside, and 25.82, 26.19, 26.81 on the upside.

Is Soxx a buy right now? ›

SOXX's analyst rating consensus is a Moderate Buy. This is based on the ratings of 415 Wall Streets Analysts.

Can an ETF go broke? ›

Broken ETF risk

Most of the time, ETFs work just like they're supposed to: happily tracking their indexes and trading close to net asset value. But sometimes, something in the ETF breaks, and prices can get way out of whack, especially in international markets.

Why is it bad to hold leveraged ETFs? ›

Because leveraged single-stock ETFs in particular amplify the effect of price movements of the underlying individual stocks, investors holding these funds will experience even greater volatility and risk than investors who hold the underlying stock itself.

How much can you lose with leveraged ETFs? ›

As with the first example above, a triple-leveraged S&P 500 ETF loses 60% when the underlying index only loses 20%. In some rare cases, particularly when derivatives are used, a leveraged ETF can even lose all or most of its value.

Can you lose more than you invest in ETFs? ›

Can You Lose More Money Than You Invested in a Leveraged ETF? No, you cannot lose more money than you invested in a leveraged ETF. This is one of the main reasons why leveraged ETFs are considered less risky than traditional leveraged trading, such as buying on margin or short-selling stocks.

What is the most popular triple leveraged ETF? ›

8 Best Leveraged ETFs Of 2023
  • The Best Leveraged ETFs of June 2023.
  • ProShares UltraPro QQQ (TQQQ)
  • ProShares UltraPro Short QQQ (SQQQ)
  • ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF (UVXY)
  • ProShares UltraPro S&P 500 ETF (UPRO)
  • Direxion Daily Small Cap Bull 3x ETF (TNA)
  • Direxion Daily S&P 500 Bull 3x ETF (SPXL)
Jun 1, 2023

Can you make money with leveraged ETFs? ›

A leveraged inverse ETF uses leverage to make money when the underlying index is declining in value. In other words, an inverse ETF rises while the underlying index is falling, allowing investors to profit from a bearish market or market declines.

What are the 5 highest dividend paying stocks? ›

Comparison Results
NamePricePrice Change
IBM International Business Machines$137.20$0.4 (-0.29%) After 0.15%
CVX Chevron$157.09$1.42 (-0.9%) After 0.06%
EOG EOG Resources$110.67$2.05 (-1.82%) After 0%
ET Energy Transfer$12.65$0.02 (-0.16%) After 0.08%
5 more rows

Should I buy dividend stocks or ETFs? ›

Dividend ETFs or Dividend Stocks: Which Is Better? Dividend ETFs can be a good option for investors looking for a low-cost, diversified and reliable source of income from their investments. Dividend stocks may be a better option for investors who prefer to choose their own investments.

Do you pay taxes on dividends? ›

Dividends can be classified either as ordinary or qualified. Whereas ordinary dividends are taxable as ordinary income, qualified dividends that meet certain requirements are taxed at lower capital gain rates.

What is the highest safest dividend stock? ›

Safe High Yielding Stocks
CompanyTickerPayout Ratio
DowDOW36%
KeyCorpKEY36%
Best BuyBBY50%
ComericaCMA36%
5 more rows
May 22, 2023

What is the best performing ETF in last 5 years? ›

100 Highest 5 Year ETF Returns
SymbolName5-Year Return
TQQQProShares UltraPro QQQ20.96%
XLKTechnology Select Sector SPDR Fund20.15%
PSIInvesco Dynamic Semiconductors ETF19.52%
VGTVanguard Information Technology ETF19.28%
91 more rows

What stock pays the highest dividend? ›

No stock in the S&P 500 has a higher dividend yield than independent oil and gas company Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD).

What happened to Direxion stock? ›

Direxion said Friday it will close and liquidate seven exchange-traded funds because they were unable to attract sufficient investments. The funds will cease trading on the NYSE Arca and will be closed to purchase by investors as. 23, 2022.

What happens when ETF shuts down? ›

You're forced to sell or take liquidation proceeds, which can create a tax burden or lock in investment losses. You may incur a capital gains tax on profits if the ETF's in a taxable account, that is, a non-retirement account. If you owned the fund less than a year, the profit will be taxed at your normal tax rate.

Who owns Direxion funds? ›

Direxion Shares ETFs and Direxion Funds are trademarks of Rafferty Asset Management LLC.

How long should I hold my ETF? ›

Holding period:

If you hold ETF shares for one year or less, then gain is short-term capital gain. If you hold ETF shares for more than one year, then gain is long-term capital gain.

Is it safe to put all your money in an ETF? ›

There is nothing inherently risky with ETFs in general. However, because they trade like individual stocks, a skilled investor can actually implement investment strategies with added diversification, and therefore decreased risk, when used correctly.

What's the best ETF to buy right now? ›

7 Best ETFs to Buy Now
ETFYTD performance as of June 2
Ark Innovation ETF (ARKK)33.2%
Global X MSCI Greece ETF (GREK)28.8%
Pimco Enhanced Short Maturity Active ETF (MINT)2.5%
iShares Gold Trust (IAU)6.8%
3 more rows
Jun 5, 2023

What are the ratings for SOXL? ›

SOXL Performance
SOXLFactset Segment Average
YTD Return154.71%202.49%
1 Year Return32.03%35.00%
3 Year Return33.23%25.57%
5 Year Return16.64%14.41%
2 more rows

What is the future price of SOXL? ›

Semiconductor Bull SOXL share price forecast & targets for Intra Day are 24.46, 24.83, 24.09 on the downside, and 25.82, 26.19, 26.81 on the upside.

What is the biggest risk of leveraged ETF? ›

Because leveraged single-stock ETFs in particular amplify the effect of price movements of the underlying individual stocks, investors holding these funds will experience even greater volatility and risk than investors who hold the underlying stock itself.

What is the future forecast for SOXL? ›

Future price of the stock is predicted at 68.649001997842$ (215.918% ) after a year according to our prediction system. This means that if you invested $100 now, your current investment may be worth 315.918$ on 2024 June 07, Friday.

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