China And India Will Overtake U.S. Economically By 2075, Goldman Sachs Economists Say (2024)

FAQs

Will China and India overtake the US economically by 2075? ›

China is forecast to overtake the U.S. as the world's largest economy by around 2035, while India is expected to have the world's second largest by 2075, according to Goldman Sachs Research.

TOKYO – China is expected to overtake the United States by 2035 to become the world's largest economy, based on both countries' current growth trajectories, said prominent Chinese economist Zhu Min, a former deputy chief of the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

China's reopening from Covid-19 restrictions will not only accelerate the country's economic recovery, but it will also boost global economic growth, according to Goldman Sachs Research. Due to the faster-than-expected rate of reopening, our economists now forecast China's GDP to grow by 6.5% in 2023 on a Q4/Q4 basis.

Unlike demographers, economists tend to avoid forecasting decades into the future, so it's tough to find any estimates of India overtaking China's GDP. But if India can keep growing at around 7% and its currency holds firm, it should zoom past Germany and Japan to a third-place ranking by 2030.

The path to 2075: Slower global growth, but convergence remains intact. It has been two decades since the BRICs acronym was coined, with projections that the size of these economies would overtake many of the G7 by 2050. This column presents updated and expanded projections to cover 104 countries out to 2075.

At the end of last year the bank revisited its calculations. It now thinks China's economy will not overtake America's until 2035 and at its high point will be only 14% bigger (see chart).

Recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections show that India is likely to pip Germany and Japan to become the third biggest economy in the world, behind the USA and China, by 2027. But how long before India emerges as the top dog? India needs to grow at 14% to be the top economy by 2047.

The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world by far with $23 trillion in 2021 GDP, according to the World Bank's data, while China has the second-largest GDP at $18 trillion and India the sixth-largest at $3 trillion.

While expanding foreign trade can disrupt US employment, trade with China also creates and supports a significant number of American jobs. Exports to China support over 1 million US jobs, and Chinese companies invested in the United States employ over 160,000 workers. It helps US companies compete globally.

Goldman Sachs reported a $12.2 billion net revenue for the first quarter of 2023, a decline by 5% compared to the same period last year.

Why is Goldman Sachs declining? ›

Key Takeaways. Goldman Sachs (GS) reported year-over-year declines in revenue and earnings per share. Losses in the consumer loan division and lower demand for investment banking dragged down the results. Management said that Goldman will scale back its consumer banking services.

Now that China has ended its stringent Covid controls, the economy could return to growth of more than 5%. China's latest factory data marked the highest reading in nearly eleven years, indicating further recovery ahead. Beijing set an ambitious target of around 5.5% growth for 2022.

China has the strongest military force in the world while India stands at number four, according to a study released on Sunday by the defence website Military Direct.

According to Policy Brief No. 153 from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), entitled “India overtakes China as the world's most populous country”, between 2023 and 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in ...

Richest Country in 2050 will be United Kingdom

The United Kingdom's Gross Domestic Product in 2050 is estimated to be 3.58 trillion US dollars, with a per capita income of 49,412 US dollars. The present gap between the British economic wealth and Germany's economic wealth will contract significantly.

China is on pace to surpass the United States in 5^th generation fighter production, a dynamic shift with significant implications for the balance of air power in the Pacific.

India is expected to overtake Germany in terms of GDP in 2025 and Japan in 2027 to become the third largest economy after the U.S. and China.

A US recession will undoubtedly have a significant negative effect on India's software exports, margins, and employment in the service sector. Foreign Portfolio Investment (FPI) fund flows, forex reserves, and the rupee have already begun to be impacted by Fed rate increases.

Analysts estimate China's outstanding government debts surpassed 123 trillion yuan ($18 trillion) last year, of which nearly $10 trillion is so-called “hidden debt” owed by risky local government financing platforms.

Who has the largest economy in the world? ›

The United States is the richest country in the world with the highest GDP, as of 2021. China is the second richest country in the world with a $17.734 trillion GDP.

Switzerland. Switzerland, officially called the Swiss Confederation, is a small country in Central Europe made up of 16,000 square miles of glacier-carved Alps, lakes and valleys. It's one of the world's wealthiest countries, and has been well-known for centuries for its neutrality.

It is unlikely that China's economy will collapse if U.S. stops buying Chinese goods. Trade is an important part of any economy, and a very important part of China's economy. According to the World Bank, exports account for 20% of China's gross domestic product.

China has shifted purchases away from the United States to reduce its reliance on US suppliers, but US farmers remain highly dependent on the Chinese market. In 2022, around 19 percent of US agriculture exports went to China, up from 14 percent in 2017 and 13 percent in 2009.

Corn, Sorghum, and Alfalfa Hay

China has boosted its corn supplies with imports mostly from the United States. China is also a major buyer of other U.S. feedstuffs including sorghum and alfalfa hay. Like demand for soybeans, robust demand from pork and poultry sectors propelled higher volumes of feed grain imports.

Aircraft, soybeans, motor vehicles and microchips are top U.S. exports to China. Since 2001, the share of these exports going to China has increased sharply. Soybeans and motor vehicles are targets of recent Chinese tariffs.

Goldman Sachs main competitors are BNP Paribas, Credit Suisse, and Deutsche Bank.

Investment of $5 billion to Goldman Sachs

In 2008, at the peak point of the global financial crisis, the legendary investor invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs to strengthen the firm's capitalisation and liquidy in turbulent times. The then decision of Buffett has generated a return of roughly $3.1 billion for him.

Why does Goldman Sachs have a bad reputation? ›

Personnel "revolving-door" with US government. During 2008 Goldman Sachs received criticism for an apparent revolving door relationship, in which its employees and consultants have moved in and out of high level U.S. Government positions, creating the potential for conflicts of interest.

Goldman Sachs revealed a painful drop in quarterly profits Tuesday, slammed by a dealmaking slump and a major loss tied to the money-losing consumer bank Marcus.

NEW YORK, April 18, 2023 – The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) today reported net revenues of $12.22 billion and net earnings of $3.23 billion for the first quarter ended March 31, 2023.

China is set to be the world's largest economy by 2030. China's push towards robotics could mean higher productivity and even faster GDP growth. Bangladesh likely to be the biggest mover in the global GDP rankings (42nd to 26th), followed by Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam...

China's GDP should grow 5.7% per year through 2025 and then 4.7% annually until 2030, British consultancy Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) forecasts. Its forecast says that China, now the world's second-largest economy, would overtake the No. 1-ranked U.S. economy by 2030.

Hence according to him, the Indian security forces stand nowhere close to countering the Chinese man-machine warfighting capabilities in case of an outright conventional or nuclear war in which the strength, bravery, and valor of the Indian soldiers cannot match the PLA's superiority and domination in the seven crucial ...

India Vs China Air Force Strength

Thus, the rank of India is lower than China, but Indian pilots are experts in high-altitude combat missions. Chinese force has more than 2,000 aircraft, which doubles the power in front of India, which has only 900 combat aircraft.

United States. The United States of America is a North American nation that is the world's most dominant economic and military power.

UN DESA Policy Brief No. 153: India overtakes China as the world's most populous country. Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

How will China be in 2050? ›

If China were on track to grow at 4–5% a year to 2050, as many seem to hold, it follows that China would be on course to become the world's most dominant economy by far. With 2–3% growth, China's future looks very different. China would still likely become the world's largest economy.

That is because much of India's growth is baked in from the past and driven by “population momentum,” which is the tendency of a population to keep growing even if fertility falls because the size of childbearing cohorts is relatively larger from when fertility was higher (more potential mothers).

Emerging markets (E7) could grow around twice as fast as advanced economies (G7) on average. As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th)

According to a recent report by Harvard University, “From economic complexity growth estimates, India is growing at the annual list at the rate of 7.9 percent as the fastest growing country for the coming decade.

1. China. What is this? It's no wonder that China will get to rule the world from an economic standpoint in the near future.

Recent International Monetary Fund (IMF) projections show that India is likely to pip Germany and Japan to become the third biggest economy in the world, behind the USA and China, by 2027. But how long before India emerges as the top dog? India needs to grow at 14% to be the top economy by 2047.

China is forecast to overtake the US as the world's largest economy by around 2035, while India is expected to become the world's second largest by 2075. The two countries will be followed by the US in third place, according to a long-term outlook by Goldman Sachs.

According to Policy Brief No. 153 from the United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN DESA), entitled “India overtakes China as the world's most populous country”, between 2023 and 2050, the number of persons aged 65 or over is expected to nearly double in China and to increase by more than double in ...

As a result, six of the seven largest economies in the world are projected to be emerging economies in 2050 led by China (1st), India (2nd) and Indonesia (4th) The US could be down to third place in the global GDP rankings while the EU27's share of world GDP could fall below 10% by 2050.

The U.S. currently has the largest economy in the world by far with $23 trillion in 2021 GDP, according to the World Bank's data, while China has the second-largest GDP at $18 trillion and India the sixth-largest at $3 trillion.

Is China richer than the US? ›

The United States is the richest country in the world with the highest GDP, as of 2021. China is the second richest country in the world with a $17.734 trillion GDP.

China will become the global economy's biggest growth driver in the next 5 years, doubling the US contribution, IMF says. The IMF said China will be the largest driver of global economic growth in the next five years. China will contribute 22.6% of total world growth, while the US will contribute 11.3%.

The country's nominal GDP of USD 18 trillion is roughly six times that of India. China has historically had a larger population. And in the previous decade, China's real GDP growth outpaced India's by over 1.5 percentage points annually. However, the tables are set to be at least partly turned in the coming years.

China has the second-largest airforce globally, whereas IAF ranks fourth globally. The PLAAF's massive fighter aircraft and modern air defence systems challenge IAF's fleet size. PLAAF has over 2,000 battle aircraft, more than two times the IAF's 900 combat aircraft.

The balance of power among nations is continually shifting. The determining factors of a country's power are diverse and ever-evolving. In 2023, the top 10 most powerful countries in the world are the US, China, Russia, Germany, the UK, South Korea, France, Japan, India, and Israel.

China's population is aging faster than almost all other countries in modern history. In 2050, the proportion of Chinese over retirement age will become 39 percent of the total population according to projections. China is rapidly aging at an earlier stage of its development than other countries.

China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States are often referred to as great powers by academics due to "their political and economic dominance of the global arena". These five nations are the only states to have permanent seats with veto power on the UN Security Council.

According to a recent report by Harvard University, “From economic complexity growth estimates, India is growing at the annual list at the rate of 7.9 percent as the fastest growing country for the coming decade.

China is set to be the world's largest economy by 2030. China's push towards robotics could mean higher productivity and even faster GDP growth. Bangladesh likely to be the biggest mover in the global GDP rankings (42nd to 26th), followed by Philippines, Pakistan and Vietnam...